I would like to talk about the Conference Semi-Finals. Right now, there are 3 dominant teams in my opinion. These teams are playing at a very high level and they are maintaining that level throughout the playoffs. In my opinion, these team are the Memphis Grizzlies, the Miami Heat, and the Atlanta Hawks.
My pre-series picks were (since the games have already started):
I will start this off with two teams that are both playing very well coming into the series. Oklahoma City (OKC) and the Memphis Grizzlies.
OKC in 7. This was a tough pick for me to make and I will explain why.
Kevin Durant will have to play every game like it is a Game 7. My dad called me and said that he can go for 40 a night. For the Thunder to win this series, he may have to go for 40 points in at least four games. The Grizzlies went in and stole yet another Game 1, which is huge for them. Memphis has all of the momentum and I think they are turning into the Green Bay Packers of the NBA Playoffs. Nobody wants to play these guys. They are clicking at exactly the right time. The Memphis Grizzlies are without their star player (Rudy Gay) and yet have Mike Conley (who I correctly predicted would be a better pro than Greg Oden), O.J. Mayo, Durell Arthur, Shane Battier, Marc (not Pau) Gasol, Zach Randolph, former Pitt star Sam Young, even former Celtic Tony Allen, and fellow Terp Greivis Vazquez all playing key roles and all of them are playing out of their skin right now.
The Grizzlies are athletic, they are young, they are gritty and tough, they have unbelievable depth, and they have the mindset that they can beat anybody anywhere. That makes them very dangerous and as the Spurs found out, if you don’t come out and give your best every night, they will beat you.
I went with OKC here for two reasons. The first is Kevin Durant. The league’s back-to-back scoring champ can take over a game and knows how to win. The second is that I thought that the Grizzlies would cool down eventually and fall back down to earth where Durant and Westbrook would then pick them apart. Only Miami has held serve at home, winning both of their home games. Westbrook has the ability to score 30 points but at times, he turns the ball over and shoots 30 shots. That scares me a little because I don’t know which Westbrook I am going to see any given night in the playoffs where good guard play and protecting the ball is crucial to post-season success. Home court advantage has not been kind to the higher seeded teams like Chicago, OKC, and the L.A in the Semis.
The way Memphis has been playing recently, they may end up steam-rolling OKC on their way to the conference finals just like the Packers did to the Falcons in the NFL Playoffs. I believe that Zach Randolph will eventually stop scoring 30+ every night and that OKC will rediscover its dynamic offense. But now they will have to come from behind to do it, which is something they have not had to do this post-season. This series will be incredibly entertaining and will feature a lot of great athleticism and scorers. Westbrook is my X factor as is Perkins’ and Ibaka’s ability to guard/neutralize Randolph in the post.
Next, we have my hometown Atlanta Hawks against the top-seeded Chicago Bulls.
I am going Hawks in 5. It is absolutely true that I picked against the Hawks in the first round but I have seen the light. The Hawks played brilliant basketball against the Magic and let Howard score 35 and 15 every game while taking away all of his other guys. The Hawks are a match-up nightmare for any team in the East and most teams in the NBA period. For whatever reason, I just don’t like the Bulls. I told my dad before the playoffs began that there was no way that the Bulls were going to come out of the East. I thought that either the winner of the Magic/Hawks series was going to be too much for them and if they somehow made the finals, they would be demolished by the winner of the Celtics/Heat series. I love Derrick Rose but the people around him are not good enough to beat this Hawks team.
Joe Johnson of the Hawks is earning every cent of the massive paycheck that he is getting this year and the increasing amounts that he gets for the next four or five years. He and Crawford can both get hot at anytime and Al Horford is one of the most under-rated players in the NBA. The combination of Horford and Josh Smith is one of the best forward duos in the NBA. Hinrich’s injury could be a problem later since he provides them with good defense, scoring, and playoff experience. Jeff Teague (former Wake Forest stand-out) did a fantastic job on D Rose in Game 1 and he will have to keep that up if the Hawks want to make short work of the Bulls.
The Hawks are notorious for their slow starts to games in both the regular season and the playoffs but in Game 1, they came out of the gate red hot and they will need to continue to come out firing so they don’t fall behind early. The “Shock The World” phrase that started after the underdog 8th seeds Hawks of 2008 went 7 games with the eventual champion Boston Celtics in Round 1 has taken some hits over the years. In 2009, they were beaten badly by Lebron’s Cavs after beating the Heat. Last year, they edged out the Bucks in 7 games in the first round and then were swept by an NBA record average of 25 a game by Dwight Howard’s Magic. That must have left a sour taste in the mouth of the Hawks and I believe that beating the Magic in Round 1 must have felt great. I love the fact that Atlanta Hawks spokesman Arthur Triche sent Jameer Nelson tickets for the Hawks and Bulls games after Nelson told Rose after they played on April 10th “Catch you in the 2nd round.” This is a great move for the Hawks and I think it is hillarious. I don’t think that Nelson will take the Hawks up on it but great move from the Hawks since they still don’t feel like people and teams around the league respect them. They will catch their attention when they knock off the Bulls.
Next up is my favorite team, the Miami Heat, and the Boston Celtics.
I have Miami in 6.
I went with 6 because I thought that the Celtics would be able to win the first two games in Boston. They are incredibly hard to play there and the Heat, now on a 3 game winning streak against the Celtics, still have not won in Boston. It is a different atmosphere and I don’t know if they will be ready for it. The Heat have played fantastic basketball, shutting down the Celtics Big 3 while their own Big 3 (the MoHeatos) has put up serious numbers. Wade and Lebron have each led the team to victories. In Game 2, the Big 3 of the Heat scored 80 points and convincingly won another game against the Celtics. The Celtics look like they are hurting from the Kendrick Perkins trade. They are not strong offensively or defensively in the middle. When Rajon Rondo leads your team in scoring with 20 points and Ray Allen only has 7, you know that your team is struggling. KG and Allen were both in foul trouble for much of the game and the Heat made 5 more free throws than the Celtics even attempted. The Celtics are aching. They have some minor injury concerns and they seem to be struggling to keep up with this young Heat team.
Rajon Rondo was my X factor for this series as were James Jones and Mario Chalmers. When Rondo passes up lay-up opportunities to pass to teammates and does not attack the basket and doesn’t knock down jumpers that teams give him, the Celtics are very beatable. When he does all of the things that I mention above and has a triple double or at least close to it, the Celtics are very hard to beat. Luckily, the Heat got an off-night from every one of the Big 3 of Boston and only Rondo had a great game for them. I had my concerns about the role players of the Heat coming into this series. They were going to have to know their roles and hit the open shots that they would get because of Miami’s Big 3 drawing away the Celtic defense. In Game 1, James Jones was outstanding and made the Celtics pay. Mario Chalmers, while not putting up the points, has stuck to his role as a facilitator and point guard of this offense and the Heat have played better because of it. If the Celtics don’t snap out of this funk that they are in and get healed up, then Game 3 which is Saturday night in Boston could be very bad because the Heat have all the momentum and are playing with a lot of confidence. If the Celtics don’t win the battle in the paint, don’t contain Lebron or Wade, and don’t shoot well, then this could be a very short series and my belief that the Heat will end up winning the NBA Championship this year will be well placed.
Lastly, we have the 2 time defending champion Lakers against the Dallas Mavericks.
I have the Lakers in 7.
I was very surpised to see Kobe not play as well down the stretch as I have been used to and then was further surprised by the post-game conference where he denied responsibility for the loss and put it on his teammates. Kobe will have to be Kobe and clearly with his performance in Game 1, he can still be the most feared player in the NBA. However, Bynum and Gasol and Odom have to win the battle in the paint. That is the advantage that the Lakers have against every team in the NBA. No team has a better frontcourt than the Lakers. They will need to be great to beat Dallas. Dirk is playing fantastic basketball and after last night, I would say that he is as clutch as ever and he continues to make off-balance circus shots night after night.
Jason Kidd somehow stepped into a time machine against the Blazers and played almost like his former self from years and years ago. This round, he will have to contend with Derrick Fisher which should be a fun match-up to watch. The Mavs will need to rely on the “other guys” since Dirk is eventually going to draw double teams or at least some additional pressure from the Lakers defense. Shawn Marion can still play (not like he used to but he can still play very well) will have to be solid and Jason Terry (I will forever be a Jason Terry fan because of his days with the Hawks when the PA announcer used to yell, “J TEEEEEE for THREEEEEEE!!!” I love him. He is a great player and a great teammate. I think you could have made the argument that he should have won the 6th Man of the Year Award. Other than Dirk and Terry, there really aren’t a whole lot of go-to scoring options on the Mavs.
That is why my X factor for the series is Tyson Chandler. If he plays well offensively and defensively, he is a difference maker and can impact these games. I believe that the Lakers have enough depth that if Kobe doesn’t score 30 points in a game, they can still come out with the W. The Lakers are simply a deeper team but the Mavs are dangerous because of Dirk. I am not as concerned about the Lakers dropping Game 1 because they did the same thing against New Orleans in Round 1 and came back and won. If I remember correctly, the Lakers went at least 6 games in the first 2 Rounds last year (I believe they beat OKC in 6 and the Rockets in 7). You can never count the Lakers out because they are the champs and because they have done this whole rodeo before. In fact they have been in the NBA Finals for the last 3 years and have won the last 2. They know how to win and they will. I definitely understand why people are concerned after a Game 1 loss but look at the team that beat the Lakers in Game 1 in Round 1. They are watching from home. I believe that the Mavs are going to lose this series but they are going to give the Lakers all that they can handle.
terpsportstalk 